The Changing Face of Renting: Trends from the End of Tenancy Survey

The end of tenancy survey is produced by the NSW Government Department of Fair Trading. The survey is distributed to all principal tenants, landlords, and nominated agents upon the termination of a tenancy. It asks basic questions about who ended the tenancy and why. We have recently received an update to the end of tenancy survey data. The survey now spans from August 2021 to April 2025, covering almost four years. This new data provides us with an opportunity to update our previous analysis and examine what has changed over that time. This is also the last release covering the period before rental reforms were introduced, and before we see significant improvements to the data collection process moving forward so it's a baseline for both the kinds of reasons and the response rates.

How often are people responding?

By comparing the total number of surveys to the total bond refunds during the same period, we can see that roughly 1 in 6 (15.8%) people (either the tenant, landlord, or agent) are responding to the survey. The majority of respondents are tenants, who respond at nearly three times the rate as landlords or their agents.

Recently, the response rate has been declining, with the decrease being fairly consistent among both landlords and tenants. There are several possible reasons for this trend. It could be that Fair Trading, the organisation administering the survey, is promoting it less than before. Alternatively, the slowed pace of new rent increases and the introduction of major reforms may have reduced the sense of urgency to participate. Regardless, response rates must remain high so that the survey continues to accurately reflect the current state of the NSW private rental sector.

Reasons tenants terminate their tenancy

Overall, there has not been a significant change in the reasons tenants give for ending their tenancy since our previous analysis. The most common reason remains "choosing to move," with more than two-thirds of tenants selecting this option. While this may reflect some tenants' actual circumstances, the survey's legal framework does not permit nuanced responses. For example, a tenant who receives an excessive rent increase and feels forced to leave may still be recorded as "choosing to move".

While there has not been a major shift in the reasons tenants give for ending their tenancy, a few noticeable trends have emerged over time. "End of agreement" and "Choose to move" account for between 80% and 90% of responses, but both have shown a minor, gradual decline throughout the survey period. This may be reflective of a broader trend in the bond data, that tenants are moving less frequently. Additionally, from 2023 onwards, the number of tenancies ending due to the sale of property increased by roughly 30%. This likely reflects landlords taking advantage of the significant rise in property prices, with house prices in NSW growing by around 35% between 2020 and 2022, the largest increase in over a decade.

Reasons landlords terminate a tenancy

In future releases of the end of tenancy survey data, no grounds eviction will be replaced with one of the new legally valid reasons for eviction.

The new legally valid reasons for eviction include:

• Significant renovations/repairs or demolition of the property, that mean you need to move out of the property
• A change in the use of the property, in situations where the property will no longer be used as a rental (e.g. it will be used for a business or a short-term holiday rental) 
• The owner or a ‘relevant person’ from their family will move into the property
• The landlord will sell the property
• Eligibility:
  • The renter is living in affordable or transitional housing and is not eligible for that housing program any more or the program has ended
  • The renter is living in purpose-built student housing and is not enrolled as a student anymore
  • The premises are part of NSW government key worker housing scheme and are needed to house a priority key worker.

As reporting on these reasons for a landlord initiated termination will become mandatory, we should expect see a considerable increase in the response rate of landlords.

In the lead-up to the removal of no grounds evictions, there was a noticeable spike in their use at the start of 2023, possibly coinciding with both the Labor and Liberal parties going into the NSW election with promises of banning no grounds. It is possible this increase reflects landlords acting pre-emptively before reform. However, data from the Tenants Advice and Advocacy Services shows a similar trend starting much earlier: before 2020, only around 5% of queries involved no grounds evictions, but this doubled to around 10% during 2021 and has remained at that level since. Alongside this, we have also seen a spike in terminations for the sale of property after 2022, most likely driven by the same property price surge that took place over that three-year period.

A changing tenure type

Over recent years, the survey has shown a steady increase in the rate of fixed-term rental agreements, rising by an average of 1.7% each year. There are several possible reasons behind this shift. Many landlords may prefer fixed terms, partly because the notice period for tenants to end a periodic agreement in NSW is only 21 days, which offers them less security. In some cases, landlord insurance policies even require a fixed-term lease. Additionally, NSW has historically stood out for its relatively low rates of fixed-term agreements, this gradual increase could represent industry practice spreading across states.

A future with improved data capture

This dataset already provides valuable insights into tenants’ experiences and the dynamics of the rental market, but has really suffered from exceptionally low response rates from landlords and agents. From 1 July, landlords are required to report the reason they are ending a teanncy and this will significantly improve the dataset. Tenants are still able to participate in the survey voluntarily and will be able to fact check where incorrect information is provided - we really encourage renters to participate. This improvement will provide more comprehensive and detailed data that will strengthen our understanding of rental trends and tenant outcomes. We will continue to analyse and report on this data to ensure tenants’ perspectives are visible and inform policy discussions!